Q1 2021:
-0.21% – U.S. momentum stocks
7.16% & -2.29% – Emerging markets (small & profit) stocks
2.92% – International profitability stocks
6.35% – U.S. large stocks 11.64% – Global high yield bonds
25.10% & -1.09% – U.S. small (value & profit) stocks -0.71% – CA municipal bonds
4.75% – U.S. Hi Relative Profitability -2.08% – Core bonds
2020:
29.69% – U.S. momentum stocks
13.80% & 34.73% – Emerging markets (small & profit) stocks
13.20% – International profitability stocks
18.37% – U.S. large stocks 0.00% – Global high yield bonds
3.77% & 59.60% – U.S. small (value & profit) stocks 5.36% – CA municipal bonds
19.27% – U.S. Hi Relative Profitability 5.60% – Core bonds
I just sat in on a presentation about the state of our media given by a philosophy professor (a teacher of logic and member of the Heterodox academy). I already knew the basic gist but there was value in hearing, again, how media is driven by profits and there is less presentation of fact today (or more avoidance of inconvenient facts). The media are able to get away with this because we’re still more divided as a nation than we’ve been for 100 years.
Because we’re more divided, the media make more money pushing things not quite so true (biased) as many people are paying them to do so. We like to feel good by having our biases confirmed and unfortunately this cycle keeps feeding on itself.
I bring this up because periodically we have clients tell us they’ve read such and such from so and so about how the world is about to fall apart, or how inflation is right around the corner given all the government spending; and so what do we think about the future.
We think that as humans it’s tough to not concern ourselves with the short-term, but the long-term trend for global human advancement is firmly in-place and likely to remain so. We want to have a good, meaningful, and significant life for ourselves, and a component of this includes wanting the same for all those around us.
Capitalism is simply a means of human exchange/collaboration, where economic advancement is accelerated through specialization and the leverage of resources. The benefits of capitalism can be almost unbelievable (e.g. over 2 billion people worldwide have been lifted out of abject poverty over the last 25 years according to the UN.) Capitalism works, and is likely to continue producing positive benefits to all people and to participating investors alike.
As such, we try to control that which we can and ignore that which is likely being sold for the benefit of others.
Hopefully, we’ll be much further along in getting through the pandemic in a few months. This is what the market is anticipating and volatility had dropped commensurately. We’ve had a decent shift in stock leadership as evidenced by the spread of returns from different asset classes in Q1.
As always, we appreciate the trust you put in us to manage your investments. We are always available for a conversation should questions arise or you simply desire to connect with us for a few minutes to just say hello.
Sincerely,
Erik S. Wolfers, MBA, CFP®
